The number of unemployed people in India is expected to rise by 1 lakh in 2017 and another 2 lakh in 2018, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The ILO predicted that the number of jobless will increase from 17.9 million in 2016 to 18 million by 2018 even though the country unemployment rate is expected to go down from 3.5 per cent to 3.4 per cent in 2017.
“Economic growth continues to disappoint and underperform – both in terms of levels and the degree of inclusion. This paints a worrisome picture for the global economy and its ability to generate enough jobs, let alone quality jobs” said ILO Director General Guy Ryder.
Globally, the ILO reckons that the number of jobless people will increase by 3.4 million in 2017, in its report on World Employment and Social Outlook for 2017 released late Thursday, with projections based on econometric modelling carried out in November 2016. The global unemployment rate is expected to rise modestly from 5.7 to 5.8 per cent in 2017 as the pace of labour force growth outstrips job creation.
Vulnerable forms of employment, which include contributing family workers and own account workers, are expected to stay above 44 per cent of total employment. About 1.4 billion people are likely to be engaged in such employment in 2017, with the number rising by 11 million per year, with Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa being the most affected.
“In fact, almost one in two workers in emerging countries are in vulnerable forms of employment, rising to more than four in five workers in developing countries,” said Steven Tobin, ILO senior economist and lead author of the report. The report has clubbed India in the category of emerging nations.
Less than $3 per day
The number of workers earning less than $3.15 per day is even expected to increase by more than 5 million over the next two years in developing countries. Global uncertainty and the lack of decent jobs are, among other factors, underpinning social unrest and migration in many parts of the world.
“A co-ordinated effort to provide fiscal stimulus and an increase in public investment that takes into account each country’s fiscal space, would provide an immediate jump-start to the global economy and reduce global unemployment in 2018 by close to 2 million compared to our baseline forecasts,” the ILO said.
Asia Pacific region, with nearly 60 per cent of the global workforce, saw net employment rise by over 20 million (or 1.1 per cent) in 2016, and a similar expansion is anticipated in 2017. “Southern Asia has created most of the new employment, with employment expanding by 13.4 million in 2016, underpinned by population-driven labour force growth. The majority of this new employment was created in India.”
“Manufacturing growth has underpinned India’s recent economic performance, which may help buffer demand for the region’s commodity exporters,” the report said.
“Entering 2017, working poverty is projected to continue to decline in Asia-Pacific, in both rate and absolute numbers, while vulnerable employment numbers look set to rise, despite decreases in the vulnerable employment rate, largely as a result of population growth.”